Alan McFarland and the North Down conundrum

New 'New labour' supporter?

The BBC is reporting the resignation of North Down MLA Alan McFarland from the UUP.

He has been MLA for North Down for 12 years and claims he is leaving the party because he is uncomfortable with the electoral link up with the Conservative Party and that the alliance was detrimental to unionist interests in Northern Ireland.

A bit odd since the interests of unionists is to remain part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.  Is it not a bonus to have Her Majesty's Official Opposition (at least until 6 May) having a selfish and strategic interest in supporting that union?

I know Alan, and have a great deal of respect for him, but I can not see how he can so suddenly become a New Labour supporter.  Throwing his towel in with Sylvia may not be the best thing for him to do. Nor the best thing for protecting the interests of unionists in Northern Ireland. 

Labour have resisted giving British and Irish citizens living in Northern Ireland equal status with the rest of the UK. Where is the Labour Party in Northern Ireland elections?  Labour Party activists have had to fight tooth and nail to become recognised here.  I don't subscribe to the New Labour ideology (mostly selling of the national assets to drive us even deeper into debt), but I do support Labour activists in Northern Ireland gaining equal status with England, Scotland and Wales.  I welcome normal national politics seeping into Northern Ireland electoral choices.

At least the Conservatives are providing the electorate here an opportunity to vote in UK wide democratic politics.

I googled Alan and found already a lot of chatter on twitter about him resigning and checked out his website. But it did not tell me a lot.  In fact it is not very informative at all.  About anything.

I don't believe this is a set back for the Conservatives and Unionists in the long term.  If Alan could not 'thole' it then he has every right to make his choice to follow his own 'Sylvia' lining.  But it is a very Sylviaesque stunt to try and create as many problems as possible during an election campaign.  I fully expect to see Alan out and about working for Sylvia, but it will be interesting to see if North Down follows down that New Labour route.

Every cloud has a Sylvia lining.

Standing her ground

I previously posted about Sylvia Hermon, and the difficulties of her standpoint, especially through her constant support of Labour, public sniping of the Conservative and Unionist link up, and the constant flip-flopping of will she or won't she stand for election.

Well, Bobballs has picked it up this morning that Sylvia will indeed run as an independent candidate in the forthcoming General Election for the constituency of North Down.

So, Syvia has finally announced she is running.

What is really interesting is that it will be the first real, normal UK wide political election Northern Ireland has ever seen (At least within living memory). Does North Down want a Labour MP or a Conservative MP?

The DUP are in a bit of a quandry (maybe they are not and have their plans of action all drawn up).

It seems to be pretty plain they will not run a candidate. DUP MPs have been duly noted as getting on in a friendlier fashion with Sylvia recently. So what will they do?

The DUP have a number of options, including:

1. They simply sit back and allow their North Down voters a free vote. This may allow them to hedge their bets without stepping on anyone's toes.
2. 'Officially' or even 'unofficially' support Sylvia. This would be an attempt to give the UCUNF project a very bloody nose. A fair enough standpoint to take after the 'Thanks, but no thank's' talks on 'Unionist Unity'. Tactically? lovely revenge. Strategically? Maybe not the best idea.
3. 'Offically' or even 'unofficially' support Ian Parsley. Maybe, but can't really see it happening. It would be a great lift for all in North Down, and the DUP could gain local Kudos from voters in the long term, especially in the Assembly elections next year. But politics can be fickle.

So.  North Down.  Any betting people out there??  What are the odds?

How do you solve a problem like Sylvia

Well, one half of the UCUNF team have been assembled with the UUP releasing their list of 17 nominees seeking to become UCUNF candidates for the forthcoming election.

But don't we have 18 constituencies? Ah, yes. North Down. With the incumbent Lady Sylvia refusing to take the Conservative whip and refusing to put her name forward for the project that has left a vacancy for the UNCUNF candidacy. Cue Ian Parsley stepping in to birdie that 18th hole. (I promise I will not refer to golf any further)

Lady Sylvia has been a conundrum for the UUP for a while. Voting more with New Labour, a party that was even more ambiguous on the whole NI in the UK thing than the Tories and of course has quite few 'Brits out' supporters such as 'Red' Ken Livingstone, and has always had a warm place by the fire for what had been physical force republicanism. Lady Sylvia, while a great constituency worker, seems to have been less than friendly to the UUP cause. Indeed, she dropped the clanger in the middle of the European election putting Jim Nicholson in an awkward position.

I suspect she intends to run as an independent, which kind of puts her in the position of not standing as an Ulster Unionist Party representative. Recently, she spoke at an SDLP dinner in North Down attacking the Conservative Party and the UUP link up.

It will be a very interesting election in North Down. I would guess that Ian Parsley will be the candidate to take on Sylvia. However, with Sylvia being the incumbent and having a good reputation as a constituency MP, Ian will have his work cut out for him. North Down also has a reputation for backing mavericks. But it is also a constituency that would be a conservative stronghold were it in England. I think it will be a politico's nightmare to properly predict.

The other UUP nominees (to be a candidate, the two parties of the UUP and Conservative Party have to ratify who is standing where) are:

• North Antrim Robin Swann;
• South Antrim Adrian Watson;
• East Antrim Rodney McCune;
• North Belfast Fred Cobain;
• West Belfast Bill Manwaring;
• South Belfast Paula Bradshaw;
• East Belfast Trevor Ringland;
• Strangford Mike Nesbitt;
• South Down John McAllister;
• Lagan Valley Daphne Trimble;
• Upper Bann Harry Hamilton;
• Newry and Armagh Danny Kennedy;
• Fermanagh and South Tyrone Tom Elliot;
• Mid Ulster Sandra Overend;
• West Tyrone Ross Hussey;
• Foyle David Harding;
• East Londonderry Lesley McAuley.

Owen Polley, in his 3000 Versts of Loneliness blog post 'Better late than never. Or 17 out of 18 ain't (too) bad!', gives an excellent run down of the UUP nominees and I think a fairly accurate rating of the chances.  He is unkind to a few, but that would be a discussion for another day!


The DUP are in diffs at the moment, but I think they will keep a large number of their MPs seats.  I think the UCUNF project could potentially pick up 3 seats.  The SDLP have a good chance of retaining their 3 seats, though what happens in South Belfast will be a deciding factor in the retention of the third seat.  Sinn Fein will hold on to their seats, but their performance will be closely watched.