Ian preparing a return to the Alliance Party?

In his latest post on his blog, Ian Parsley has explained that he has resigned from the Conservative Party in Northern Ireland.  This is not entirely a surprise as Paula Bradshaw, his partner, resigned from the Ulster Unionist Party and recently joined the Alliance Party in early November this year after failing to be selected by the South Belfast Ulster Unionist Association to run for the Northern Ireland Assembly elections to take place in May 2011.  Paula and Ian had both been 2010 Westminster candidates for the UCUNF project.  No UCUNF candidates were elected.  Some of the Westminster candidates have found themselves on the Assembly election ticket whilst others have not.

Ian has been a local Councillor in North Down Borough Council since 2005, first as an Alliance councillor and then as a Conservative councillor.  In his present state of resignation that will mean he will be an independent councillor, until someone takes him in.  

This now takes the total tally of Conservative Councillors down from three to two (Dierdre Nelson and Peter Bowles).  

He had previously been the 2009 European candidate for the Alliance Party before joining the Conservative Party in September 2009 when he was employed by the Centre for Social Justice, which eventually published an interesting document 'Breakthrough Northern Ireland'.

A lot of work seems to have been put into this and it will be interesting to see if Ian continues in this role as well or if he has also resigned from this as well in which case it will be interesting to see who is supposed to drive forward the policy recommendations.  Will the CSJ maintain a presence in Northern Ireland? or will we once again be forgotten about?  

Does his resignation, along with a slap to the Conservatives and a wistful reminiscence of his time in the Alliance Party point to a wish to rejoin the Alliance Party?  Indeed the last few paragraphs of his blog post point out his regret at leaving the Alliance Party in the way he did and he apologises for the hurt he caused.  Definitely sounds like he is looking to rejoin the Alliance Party.  

He is a capable politician, amiable gentleman and has a vision.  I hope he finds a home he is able to continue his work from, whether or not that will be from a home in the Alliance Party?  I am not too sure. 

There is also a good run down on this by Aldous Duke on Slugger O'Toole

Every cloud has a Sylvia lining.

Standing her ground

I previously posted about Sylvia Hermon, and the difficulties of her standpoint, especially through her constant support of Labour, public sniping of the Conservative and Unionist link up, and the constant flip-flopping of will she or won't she stand for election.

Well, Bobballs has picked it up this morning that Sylvia will indeed run as an independent candidate in the forthcoming General Election for the constituency of North Down.

So, Syvia has finally announced she is running.

What is really interesting is that it will be the first real, normal UK wide political election Northern Ireland has ever seen (At least within living memory). Does North Down want a Labour MP or a Conservative MP?

The DUP are in a bit of a quandry (maybe they are not and have their plans of action all drawn up).

It seems to be pretty plain they will not run a candidate. DUP MPs have been duly noted as getting on in a friendlier fashion with Sylvia recently. So what will they do?

The DUP have a number of options, including:

1. They simply sit back and allow their North Down voters a free vote. This may allow them to hedge their bets without stepping on anyone's toes.
2. 'Officially' or even 'unofficially' support Sylvia. This would be an attempt to give the UCUNF project a very bloody nose. A fair enough standpoint to take after the 'Thanks, but no thank's' talks on 'Unionist Unity'. Tactically? lovely revenge. Strategically? Maybe not the best idea.
3. 'Offically' or even 'unofficially' support Ian Parsley. Maybe, but can't really see it happening. It would be a great lift for all in North Down, and the DUP could gain local Kudos from voters in the long term, especially in the Assembly elections next year. But politics can be fickle.

So.  North Down.  Any betting people out there??  What are the odds?

How do you solve a problem like Sylvia

Well, one half of the UCUNF team have been assembled with the UUP releasing their list of 17 nominees seeking to become UCUNF candidates for the forthcoming election.

But don't we have 18 constituencies? Ah, yes. North Down. With the incumbent Lady Sylvia refusing to take the Conservative whip and refusing to put her name forward for the project that has left a vacancy for the UNCUNF candidacy. Cue Ian Parsley stepping in to birdie that 18th hole. (I promise I will not refer to golf any further)

Lady Sylvia has been a conundrum for the UUP for a while. Voting more with New Labour, a party that was even more ambiguous on the whole NI in the UK thing than the Tories and of course has quite few 'Brits out' supporters such as 'Red' Ken Livingstone, and has always had a warm place by the fire for what had been physical force republicanism. Lady Sylvia, while a great constituency worker, seems to have been less than friendly to the UUP cause. Indeed, she dropped the clanger in the middle of the European election putting Jim Nicholson in an awkward position.

I suspect she intends to run as an independent, which kind of puts her in the position of not standing as an Ulster Unionist Party representative. Recently, she spoke at an SDLP dinner in North Down attacking the Conservative Party and the UUP link up.

It will be a very interesting election in North Down. I would guess that Ian Parsley will be the candidate to take on Sylvia. However, with Sylvia being the incumbent and having a good reputation as a constituency MP, Ian will have his work cut out for him. North Down also has a reputation for backing mavericks. But it is also a constituency that would be a conservative stronghold were it in England. I think it will be a politico's nightmare to properly predict.

The other UUP nominees (to be a candidate, the two parties of the UUP and Conservative Party have to ratify who is standing where) are:

• North Antrim Robin Swann;
• South Antrim Adrian Watson;
• East Antrim Rodney McCune;
• North Belfast Fred Cobain;
• West Belfast Bill Manwaring;
• South Belfast Paula Bradshaw;
• East Belfast Trevor Ringland;
• Strangford Mike Nesbitt;
• South Down John McAllister;
• Lagan Valley Daphne Trimble;
• Upper Bann Harry Hamilton;
• Newry and Armagh Danny Kennedy;
• Fermanagh and South Tyrone Tom Elliot;
• Mid Ulster Sandra Overend;
• West Tyrone Ross Hussey;
• Foyle David Harding;
• East Londonderry Lesley McAuley.

Owen Polley, in his 3000 Versts of Loneliness blog post 'Better late than never. Or 17 out of 18 ain't (too) bad!', gives an excellent run down of the UUP nominees and I think a fairly accurate rating of the chances.  He is unkind to a few, but that would be a discussion for another day!


The DUP are in diffs at the moment, but I think they will keep a large number of their MPs seats.  I think the UCUNF project could potentially pick up 3 seats.  The SDLP have a good chance of retaining their 3 seats, though what happens in South Belfast will be a deciding factor in the retention of the third seat.  Sinn Fein will hold on to their seats, but their performance will be closely watched.