A General or a Specific election??

What about 'none of the above'?

I am putting my money on 6th May 2010 for the wonderful General Election.

I know there are lots rumours doing the rounds.  Indeed today Gordon is supposed to be announcing that the General Election will be taking place on 25th March.  All I would say is, if you are as sad as I am, have a wee gander over to General Election Timetables.

There you will see an illustrative timetable of potential election dates and when the 'Proclamation of Dissolution' has to happen.  The 'Proclamation of Dissolution' is basically when the Prime Minster goes to the Queen and asks her to dissolve her Parliament, and she  agrees.

You will see from the timetable that today (Monday 1 March 2010) is the day for the 'Proclamation of Dissolution' for the 25th Match to be the election day, when you and I get to once again drudge down to the local polling stations to vote for people we are not quite sure off.

The rumours for 25th March are now fading big time.  And as you can see below, we will have a few more rumour filled weekends to go through.  Right up to the timings for a June 3 election.

So why do I still stick to 6th May?

1. Its been the longest persisting rumour.
2. A number of Labour Grandees have let it slip now and again.
3. It is the date of the Local Elections in England
4. Its a nice time of the year to have it.
5. Its not the holiday season, so more people will be at home.
6. And, from the Northern Ireland perspective, the date for the 'Proclamation of Dissolution' is 12 April.

Hold on, I have heard that date before, I hear you say (for the pedants, I do not mean this literally! Unless people who read this actually do track me down and do actually speak to me.)

Yes, you have heard this before.  In the Hillsborough Agreement. On page 4.  First Section.

It is the date that Policing and Justice powers will be devolved from Westminster to Northern Ireland.

So what? Its not going to win anyone an election to Westminster.  Well, no it isn't.  But the powers can not be devolved by a dissolved Westminster.  It still has to be in session for the legislation for devolving the powers to be enacted.

A dissolved Westminster does not have any MPs, nor does it debate, nor does it pass legislation.

Ergo, (using latin makes me feel so superior) the Prime Minister will not be announcing dissolution before the 12th April 2010, as he agreed to the timings for devolution at the Hillsborough negotiations.

Now all I need is for Gordon Brown to read this and then call  a snap election, just to spite me.

The deal......about a deal

Well, we now have an agreement in Northern Ireland on policing and justice. Or do we?

What seems to have happened is that negotiators spent 100+ hours to create a 21 page document that is really only a deal about a deal.

You can find the document on the Chambré Public Affairs website and have a wee read of it yourself.

What you will find is an agreement that the DUP and Sinn Fein don't want the Assembly to fall over, while the UUP and the SDLP are a bit miffed at being excluded from the full negotiations.  And the Alliance Party are, well, pottering about somewhere really hoping for the ministry, but trying not to look like they really, really want it.

The deal? Well its a deal about a deal.  An agreement is where to two big parties are both the winners.  But are they?  While the big bit relates to the devolution of policing and justice, there are also to be three committees 

1. A committee on Improving Executive Function and Delivery
2. A committee to look at Outstanding Executive Business
3. A committee to look at Outstanding Issues from St Andrew's Agreement.

There is also a new Parades Commission, that isn't a Parades Commission.  If you get my meaning.

So far the 'not the Parades Commission' has been filled by nominees by the First Minister and deputy First Minster.  The members are Michelle Gildernew, John O'Dowd, Gerry Kelly,Nelson McCausland, Stephen Moutray & Jeffrey Donaldson.

Apparently, Sir Reg only found out he was on the 'Improving Executive Function and Delivery' when he read it in the published document. Hmmmmmm.

The whole thing seems to be 'lets agree to disagree for a while and hope no one notices'.  Nothing overly terrible in itself if we are to keep the hope of a better future alive for a while longer.  

I wonder if they have been looking at all how inefficient this all is.  Whilst, as Ministers, they are demanding targeted efficiencies within their own Departments (which means civil servants being made redundant - sorry - I meant expeditious usage of vacancy control methods.  Not that this is putting any more pressure on the poor civil servant), they seem to be happy to potter about creating loads of committees to sit on.  

I wonder if they will have enough civil servants to take the notes??

Anyway.  The deal seems to already have a few problems.  The SDLP and UUP are not happy with the idea of the Alliance Party lifting the DOJ title as it does not fit into the D'Hondt system (It would be the SDLP's turn).  The Alliance Party are stating that they are not announcing a candidate as the conditions are not right yet (when will it ever?)  The SDLP have nominated Alban Maginnnis and the UUP will probably leave it at that.

The parades bit is complicated but involves the real Parades Commission probably being decommissioned, while the 'I can't believe its not....' Parades Commission probably wrangle away.  The real issue is how grassroots Orangemen feel about the whole thing.  Has the leadership of the Loyal Orders actually asked the rank and file?  I feel a difficult few years ahead. 

There is so much more but i feel a bit of my rant over.  What does any one else think about this? Or does anyone really care?

Groundhog Day 2: Policing & Justice in NI

You may or may not realise it but Tuesday, 2nd February 2010 is in fact Groundhog Day.

At least according to the ever accurate and academically sound Wikipedia.

We are in the last run of the talks at Hillsborough which is supposed to give us the finalisation of Devolution to Northern Ireland.  Gregory Campbell (DUP MLA and MP) is suggesting the possibility of a referendum to quantify public confidence in the process.  Gerry Adams thought the idea was 'cool' as it would involve the likes of the Garvaghy Road residents telling the DUP that they can go ahead and devolve P&J. Ooooh, saucer of milk?

I think the real issue underlying Groundhog Day at Hillsborough is electoral cover for DUP & Sinn Fein.  They can not be seen to be giving in to each other too soon.  Though i think the hardest discussions have already happened before Christmas.  A referendum would give them all the cover they need to progress.  However, one thing to keep in mind is the number of people who voted for the Agreement in the referendum in 1998 and slipped back to mow their gardens like horticultural ninjas when it came to actually voting for the parties.

We await with a bit more baited breath to see what happens on Groundhog Day.  

Though it would have been more poignant for the deal to have been 'done' on Holocaust Day, as a significant move for continued peace, than Groundhog Day, which sums up our politics here quite well.

the deadline approaches

Hillsborough Castle

Well today is the day.  Maybe.


Really what is going on?


Looks like at the moment the cavalry is riding in.  But here is the thing - i think the deal is already done and dusted.  What this current situation is is just to do with electioneering.


The problem is not getting the parties to agree - i think they do agree and have said publicly that they all want policing and justice to be devolved.


The issue is saving face and not being seen to back down from each other.  Hopefully the 'official' deal can be done today so we can worry about piddly things like affording our homes, electricity, food, education, employment and generally staying alive.