The blond bombshell set to sit in Craigavon (Update)

From all indications, it looks like that Jo-Anne Dobson, the UUP blond bombshell (i hope she doesn't slap me for that!), will be the newest elected politician in Northern Ireland as Councillor in Craigavon Borough Council.

It is being reported in the Newsletter that Jo-Anne has around 2,600 votes to David Calvert's 830. Roughly about 64% of the vote. I also used some of my sources (makes me look important. Doesn't it?) just to make sure.

UPDATE (12.30): Final results of voting declared

UUP 2494

TUV 752

SF 401

SDLP 256

spoiled 33

This will be a bit of a boost to the UUP/Conservative morale and shows the level of support for the TUV (David Calvert) in the area.

Though in the end how much can it really be seen as a barometer?

• The DUP did not run a candidate, and in the current climate it would have been a very for a DUP candidate.
• There was a very low turnout of around 23% (just under 4,000 voters) out of the 16,403 electorate.
• Jo-Anne Dobson is better looking than David Calvert.

However, it is a Unionist stronghold and the most worrying thing for Unionists of any hew is ensuring the same apathy does not continue into the upcoming 2010 Westminster or 2011 NI Assembly elections.

Upper Bann is most likely to stay in Unionist hands for Westminster, but that should not be taken for granted.

There are now three Unionist parties in the mix. The big damage could be done to the DUP from this, with David Simpson (DUP) being the sitting MP, as the TUV would cut into their vote more than the UUP. But the biggest issue is as ever is unionist voter apathy.

The UUP candidate front runner for Westminster seems to be 'Flash' Harry Hamilton (who puts on a fantastic Queen tribute show - seen him a couple of times), but even that is not guaranteed with the UUP/Conservative link up. Maybe David Cameron will not push a Conservative candidate if Harry gives David a VIP ticket to his next concert!

There is a 'Hammer to Fall', but on whom will it fall?

Lurgan spades or broad smiles - The Craigavon By-election

Today (13 Jan 2010) is by-election day in Lurgan for Craigavon Borough Council. The electorate is 16,403.

The runners are

• Jo-Anne Dobson (UUP)
• David Calvert (TUV)
• Liam Mackle (Sinn Fein)
• Pat McDade (SDLP)

The DUP did not put forward a candidate.

From what I hear the main contenders for the post will be the UUP and the TUV. Though under the voting system of Proportional Representation - Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV), it might be interesting to see where the Sinn Fein and SDLP votes go, if they are eliminated.

As the DUP do not have a candidate then there will be no possibility of a Dromore by-election result, per se. But it would bolster the UUP if they won.

It will be interesting to see the number of first preference votes for the TUV, whether they win or not. It would begin to show the lay of the land for the other Unionist parties on what to expect from Unionist grassroots.

The DUP will be looking on in interest, whatever the result. The strength of the TUV vote could be a sounding board for David Simpson MP (DUP) on the strength of feeling in the Lurgan area of the Upper Bann constituency.

The count will take place tomorrow, Thursday 14 January. A source (yup, i do indeed have some. I feel like a journalist now!!) has told me that the expected turnout is around 30%, and that to count should be over in the early morning (or at least a good idea of who will win the council seat.)